Spin the Wheel

Lyle Borders

Elite Member
Aug 5, 2008
1,604
860
Seattle, WA
www.theory11.com
Has anyone won prizes from the wheel? since it only has one "no reward" slot and that's what I've landed on every time, the thing has to be rigged. If there's an equal chance to land on each box, then receiving no reward three times in a row, if each slot is weighted equally is roughly 0.017% Assuming the low level rewards that aren't worth much are included, getting a low-level reward (anything less then a deck) three times in a row is about 4% (which is still ridiculously low.) Mathematically, it shouldn't happen, which leaves me to believe the wheel must be rigged.

I'm not trying to be rude here, and I guess I appreciate the effort from theory 11? They have the greatest decks on planet earth, so that's kinda nice. Please look at the math and consider if you really want to spend money on more spins. If you are undecided if I did this math correctly, then use your free spin three days in a row, and see if you win anything. If not, then probability is the thing you're looking for (any reward you actually want) divided by the number of terms. (slots on the wheel.) Then you times each probability together. (if you want 17 of the 18 slots, then your probability of getting something you want is 17/18 * 17/18 * 17/18 if you spin three days in a row. If you don't despite how high the probability is that you will, then consider that mathematically you should have gotten something.)

Anyway, I don't know if anyone will listen but I thought I'd do the math so you have it if you need it. Sorry if this sounded rude or anything. ;)

Edit: There are seventeen slots on the wheel, not 18, so my math is probably a little off. Apologies.
Hi MarilynN1,

The wheel is not a physical wheel with equal chances to land on every space. If it was, we would quickly be going out of business with the level of prizes offered on it!

Instead, every prize has a certain set of odds. When you press the spin button, your prize is decided based on those odds, and then the wheel spins to show you your prize. The no reward and smaller prizes of course have much higher odds than the larger prizes, but this is a simple set of odds. Nothing is "rigged".

We are offering a fun way to celebrate during the holidays, and to thank customers and visitors alike for being there for us by giving away LOADS of prizes. We don't claim equal odds for all prizes (though every spin, from the free spin to spins that come from purchases all have the exact same set of odds), but we do run things fairly for everyone.

Good luck everyone! I hope you all win something fun this year!

// L
 

CWhite

Elite Member
Jul 22, 2016
781
967
All I've ever won is points, in the 4 or 5 years I've been around.
I look forward to, and enjoy every year. T11 doesn't Have to do this. As said above, it's a thank you for having all of us around.
However... this is my year! I can feel it!!! lol
 
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Reactions: PeterC9

Aristotilean

Elite Member
Dec 6, 2018
136
150
All I've ever won is points, in the 4 or 5 years I've been around.
I look forward to, and enjoy every year. T11 doesn't Have to do this. As said above, it's a thank you for having all of us around.
However... this is my year! I can feel it!!! lol

Same! And I’m quite happy with the results. I personally find it fun to build up towards an archive deck solely using the points I’ve gotten from SNCs and the Holiday Wheel. I’m coming decently close after 4-5 years!
 
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Reactions: Justin.Morris
May 1, 2013
15
13
I look at the wheel as a bonus. You get a free spin each day and extra spins if you purchase items. Since this is a bonus/gift I certainly don't expect to win something! If I do then great and if I don't then thanks for the fun of the spin! I'm not one to buy items just to get free spins, but it's nice to get them as a thank-you for being a customer.
It's all in the perspective! Good-luck to all!
 
Dec 4, 2018
20
15
I definitely view it as a bonus as well. That being said, I think it would be nice to swap “no reward” for something like 10 elite points. Even getting a little reward each time would really improve the overall experience of the wheel. At most, it would result in an additional 210 elite points per participant using only free spins.
 
Dec 12, 2022
1
0
I used my free spin today and it said I landed on the signed box one but I never got an email and I accidently left the website when I was rushing back into work.
 

PeterC9

Elite Member
Jun 2, 2017
137
100
Hi Everyone...just adding my thoughts...I have won two prizes on the Wheel...last year a deck of midnight noc cards ( Ithink thats its name) and this year a pack of 007 deck..on 3rd spin. I have been playing it for 5 years, until then many points and lots of no prizes....thats why we love it. Exactly how Lyle & CWhite (and I hoping it's your year too) say, its the anticipation that brings us together...also buy more decks.. get more spins..it all adds up. Don't be upset and down, over the years I have seen many who chance the Wheel and end up with only a few points and they can't wait until next Xmas to do it again. Good Luck to everyone...and to CWhite...go for it man..this is your time...from Australia all..Peter
 
Aug 22, 2022
86
56
Hi MarilynN1,

The wheel is not a physical wheel with equal chances to land on every space. If it was, we would quickly be going out of business with the level of prizes offered on it!

Instead, every prize has a certain set of odds. When you press the spin button, your prize is decided based on those odds, and then the wheel spins to show you your prize. The no reward and smaller prizes of course have much higher odds than the larger prizes, but this is a simple set of odds. Nothing is "rigged".

We are offering a fun way to celebrate during the holidays, and to thank customers and visitors alike for being there for us by giving away LOADS of prizes. We don't claim equal odds for all prizes (though every spin, from the free spin to spins that come from purchases all have the exact same set of odds), but we do run things fairly for everyone.

Good luck everyone! I hope you all win something fun this year!

// L

Thank you for the clarification. I suppose "rigged" is the wrong word, I didn't mean to imply you guys were trying to steal our money or anything. I was just pointing out mathematically (as you did) that the slots aren't weighted equally, and that should be considered when purchasing extra spins. I'm very grateful for all you guys do!

Thanks again, T11 is the best.
 
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